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The Research Centre International Economics FIW is a project of WIFO, wiiw and WSR on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Digital and Economic Affairs. The FIW cooperation with the Vienna University of Economics and Business, the University Vienna, the Johannes Kepler University Linz and the University of Innsbruck is supported by the Federal Ministry of Education, Science and Research.
Focus summer/fall 2012
We present and discuss current research and economic policy related topics in International Economics. This quarter about:
The role of ECB in the euro crisis
Christmas is no longer cancelled in Dublin, Lisbon and Athens – even Madrid could celebrate
The interventions of the ECB haven't failed its impact. Financial experts see the economic outlook less pessimistic. ZEW-index gains slightly in October.
Interests of Italian bonds rise. The effect of the ECB bond buying program seems to fade. The chief of the Italian debt agency wants to hear none of that and declares "the Draghi-effect will go on".
Austerity programs claimed by the ECB could also slow down growth and cause less revenue.
No new details on ECB’s bond program, but much confidence on its efficiency. Interests stay steadily low, while economic outlook does not look bright.
Blackrock-bond expert Michael Krautzberger thinks the ECB has now found the right recipe against the crisis. The turn into the right direction has been delineated after Mario Draghis speech in July.
The debates of the ECB Governing Council will be kept secret for 30 years. Indeed, economists puzzle over what will be discussed there. However, many feel uneasy when thinking about public protocols.
ECB’s promises and all talking of politics haven’t changed anything. The saving of the euro zone was only a summer’s tale. The crisis is still here. Also, because of the chancellor and her minister of finance.
Banking union. According to Euro Group president Claude Juncker, ECB’s supervision over European banks will start with system-relevant institutes.
ECB chief Mario Draghi is very satisfied with the bond buying program announced by himself. The trust into the Euro has increased worldwide – the risks are under control.
The Euro increases, rates of return of crisis-hit countries decrease, stock exchanges celebrate. ECB chief Mario Draghi seems to succeed with the saving of the Euro. This can also be read from some abstruse statistics.
The ECB stays on target. One day after the verdict of Karlsruhe regarding the ESM, the central bank renews its commitment to buy bonds without limits, if needed. Withal the monetary authorities emphasize their autonomy.
Putting the European Central Bank in charge of supervising banks in the euro zone is a good idea but the central bank needs to have the resources to do the job right, ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said on Thursday.
The European Central Bank will become the supervisor of Europe’s banks. However, the plans have many critics.
After half a year, ECB chief Draghi seems to be ready to intervene into the bond markets. This should help Italy and Spain to stay liquid and provide time for real solutions.
The ECB Governing Council is working on details for planned market interventions - a turning away is unlikely. Damage control is difficult.
José Ángel Gurría of Paris-based OECD says European Central Bank should start unlimited bond-buying of crisis-hit countries.
Monetary authorities are stressed. They work on crisis support for the euro zone with great effort. Mario Draghi even skips the yearly meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, because he has a lot of work to do.
Jens Weidmann said a wave of bond buying by the European Central Bank could become 'addictive like a drug'
Intervention. The question of whether to intervene without limit or not, splits the ECB. Greece fights for its stay in the euro zone.
Because of the crisis, the ECB takes over tasks which move the bank more to politics. The resulting risks and power bother many politicians. They might be tempted to keep the ECB on a shorter leash.
Great relief: ECB chief Draghi will do everything to rescue the Euro and therefor receives support from chancellor Merkel. Experts warn of consequences like inflation and a weak currency, though.
Jörg Asmussen, member of the ECB’s executive board has defended the purchase of bonds. Besides, he warned to carelessly speak out for the exit of Greece from the monetary union.
Market players interpret the announcements of the ECB president as a commitment to more liquidity. In their sight the concrete implementation doesn’t play a key role.
Finland criticizes the ECB for its willingness to buy state bonds of Euro-states. The “AAA”-country doesn’t want the Central Bank to step into the breach for countries like Spain and Italy.
The ECB is warning of a fragmentation of financial markets. Economists fear, that a South/North-splitting will make monetary policy less effective.
Mario Draghi, head of the ECB, announces extensive steps to back up financial markets. Markets react teased, but the plan is necessary and wise.
Euro rescue showdown: France and Italy would like to grant the Euro rescue fund ESM unlimited power. Germany is outraged, as this might get very expensive. The pressure to find a solution is very high, tough.
France and Italy as well as Spain demand a rescue fund without a limit. However, Germany blocks. The conflict heats up.
Financial markets once again pushed Eurozone leaders to act. European Central Bank President Draghi recently promised to “do whatever it takes”.
On the state of the global trading system
Ukraine denied being protectionist on Tuesday as 58 countries attacked its plan to renegotiate hundreds of tariff ceilings at the World Trade Organization, with some warning that it could undermine the world trading system.
Four years after its WTO joining, the Ukraine wants to renegotiate more than 350 import tariffs. A concession to Moscow and a punch against the EU experts say.
Trading controversies on subsidized car parts and anti-dumping tariffs lead to complaints at the WTO.
A free trade zone shall simplify business in the Asia-Pacific area. However, conflicting interests of China, USA and Russia make that difficult. In addition, anxiety is caused by the Euro crisis.
At the Apec summit in Russia’s Far East, representatives of 21 states want to reduce market barriers. Concurrently, host Putin claims an institutionalization of government interventions.
States of the Asia-Pacific region seek for economic power. Within a few years the region could leave the European Union behind.
Since a few days Russia is a member of the WTO. Critics fear a rising pressure on the economy of its neighbors Belarus and Kazakhstan.
The United States and Japan assailed Argentina's import rules as protectionist at the World Trade Organization on Tuesday, putting more pressure on the country to revamp policies that many trading partners say violate global norms.
On Thursday Russia will join the WTO as 154th state after 18 years of negotiations. Many Russians fear foreign competitors – especially farmers.
The Doha round lies in coma. However, negotiations on the simplification of custom matters and an easier access to the market for transnational services were brought into action.
RIO DE JANEIRO — After wrangling over Venezuela’s status for years, Mercosur, the South American trading bloc, admitted the country as its fifth full member on Tuesday, reflecting the influence wielded by Brazil, the region’s powerhouse.
After long negotiations, Putin signs and makes Russia’s joining to WTO perfect. Deals with the energy empire could grant German companies earnings of around one billion Euros per year.
The WTO and its predecessor the GATT have been remarkably successful in negotiating down tariffs over the past six decades. But trade is still a long way from free and since the global crisis, it is becoming even less so. This column reviews the facts, economics, and motives behind these new non-tariff barriers and discusses the challenges they pose for the WTO.
Canada and Mexico have recently been invited to join negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership. This column argues that this is a big deal. It could produce a domino effect, beginning with the addition of Japan and Korea and leading to a model 21st century trade area encompassing over 700 million people with a combined GDP of some $26 trillion.