VIES: Banu Demir – Plastic Turkey: International Impacts of China’s Waste Import Ban

The FIW Research Centre International Economics and its partners kindly invite you to participate in the upcoming Vienna International Economics Seminar (VIES) on the topic:

Plastic Turkey: International Impacts of China’s Waste Import Ban

Abstract:

In pollution haven theories, trade and environmental policies can have significant effects on the levels and distribution of pollution and economic activity across countries, potentially leading to a „race to the bottom.“ This paper examines the international effects of China’s ban on plastic waste imports. In recent decades, high-income countries had been reducing their plastic waste burden by exporting it to China. However, this changed in 2017 when China implemented a ban on key plastic waste imports, raising concerns about the creation of „waste havens“ in other parts of the world.

The paper demonstrates that China’s policy led to a diversion of trade, with global repercussions. Turkey emerged as a major importer of plastic waste from high-income countries. We provide direct evidence that Turkish importers gained economically from improved access to plastic waste, which could be recycled and re-used as inputs in production. However, these gains did not outweigh the losses experienced by domestic firms that generated plastic waste and were displaced by import competition following China’s ban. These domestic waste generators became more likely to mismanage their plastic waste, often resorting to open burning. Consequently, air pollution increased more significantly in Turkish regions where these waste generators were concentrated. To explain the empirical findings and quantify the environmental externalities resulting from China’s unilateral import ban, we model the channels of waste and recycling using a gravity model of trade and the environment.

Speaker:
Banu Demir is a Professor of Economics at the University of Oxford and a Tutorial Fellow at Brasenose College. She also holds a part-time appointment as Professor of Applied Regional Economics at the Erasmus School of Economics. Additionally, she is a research affiliate of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) in the International Trade and Regional Economics (ITR) program and an affiliate of the CESifo Research Network in Munich.

• Date and Time: Tuesday, October 7, 2025, from 17:45 to 19:15
• Location: University of Vienna, Faculty of Business, Economics and Statistics, Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1, 1090 Vienna, 3rd floor, VGSE Seminar Room
• Language: English

Registration:
Participants are requested to register in advance with Julia Hnidek (julia.hnidek@univie.ac.at).

The Vienna International Economics Seminar (VIES) is a joint initiative of CEU, FIW Research Centre International Economics, Universität Wien, WIFO, wiiw, and WU Vienna. It provides a forum for the presentation and discussion of cutting-edge academic research in the field of international economics.

The seminar is held at irregular intervals on Tuesdays from 17:45 to 19:15, alternating each semester between participating institutions. From October 2025 to January 2026, the seminar will be hosted by the University of Vienna.

Organizers:
Gábor Békés (CEU), Alejandro Cuñat (Vienna U.), Harald Fadinger (Vienna U.), Gabriel Felbermayr (WIFO, WU), Miklós Koren (CEU), Harald Oberhofer (WIFO, WU), Robert Stehrer (WIIW).

The seminar is currently coordinated by Harald Fadinger.

For more information and the detailed seminar schedule, please visit: https://sites.google.com/view/viennainternationaleconomicsse/