Austria’s foreign trade came under considerable pressure in 2025. Exports of goods fell by 1.1 percent in real terms, whilst imports rose by 4.8 percent. As a result, the trade balance deteriorated significantly, recording a deficit of 6.6 billion € or approximately 1.3% relative to nominal gross domestic product. Although the FIW expects a moderate recovery in exports for 2026 and 2027, the risks arising from geopolitical tensions, rising energy prices and trade policy uncertainties remain high.
The “Research Centre International Economics” (FIW) published its seventh annual report on the “State of Austrian Foreign Trade” on Wednesday, 19 May 2026. The report analyses the international framework conditions and contains a short-term forecast of Austrian foreign trade developments for the years 2026 and 2027. For the first time, the study also examines in detail monetary foreign trade relations and medium-term changes in the global trading system.
This year’s analysis focuses on the economic consequences of geopolitical tensions – in particular the US’s protectionist trade policy, the conflict in the Middle East and the resulting energy price shock.
Exports down, imports up significantly
Austrian goods exports performed weakly in 2025, falling by 0.5 percent in nominal terms. The main factors were weak demand from key markets such as Germany and the rest of the euro area, particularly for capital goods, as well as increasing geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties. In addition, intensified international competition, including from China, weighed on export performance. Although the first signs of stabilisation emerged towards the end of the year, these were not sufficient to offset the decline for the year as a whole.
Imports of goods, by contrast, performed much more strongly, rising by 4.8 percent in real terms. The main drivers of growth were the recovery of equipment investment and domestic demand for durable consumer goods, in particular car imports as well as pharmaceutical products and precious metals. Imports from Switzerland and China recorded particularly strong growth.
As a result of the divergent trends in exports and imports, the trade balance in goods deteriorated significantly. The trade deficit amounted to 6.6 billion € in 2025. Negative volume effects could only be partially offset by favourable terms-of-trade effects.
Subdued outlook for 2026 and 2027
For the years 2026 and 2027, the FIW forecasts only a gradual recovery in Austria’s foreign trade. In the baseline scenario, exports (goods and services) are expected to grow by 1.5 percent in 2026 and 2.2 percent in 2027. Imports will also increase only moderately, by 1.0 percent in 2026 and 2.0 percent in 2027.
However, the forecast is subject to a high degree of uncertainty. Key risk factors remain the economic consequences of the war in Iran, rising prices for fossil energy sources, disruptions to global supply chains, and increasing uncertainty regarding investment and consumption decisions.
Against this backdrop, the report distinguishes between a main scenario and a pessimistic alternative scenario. The central assumption concerns the development of prices for crude oil and natural gas. This depends largely on the extent to which the global energy supply is disrupted by restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz or by destroyed production capacities in the Middle East
In the main scenario, the FIW assumes a crude oil price of 88 $ per barrel (Brent) in 2026 and 76 $ in 2027. Natural gas prices are expected to be 49 € per MWh in 2026 and 37 € in 2027. In the pessimistic scenario, by contrast, a significantly sharper and more prolonged rise in energy prices is assumed. In this case, the crude oil price would rise to 106 $ per barrel in 2026 and stand at 80 $ in 2027. Natural gas prices would rise to 64 € per MWh in 2026 and 58 € in 2027.
The impact of the pessimistic scenario on the external economy is considerable: growth in real exports would amount to just 0.3 percent in 2026 and only 1.1 percent in 2027. Imports could even decline slightly in 2026 before rising moderately again in 2027. At the same time, the trade balance would deteriorate significantly more under the pressure of higher energy prices.
Weaker international environment
The international environment also remains challenging. The global economy grew by 3.4 percent in real terms in 2025, but a slight slowdown to 3.1 percent and 3.2 percent is expected for 2026 and 2027 respectively. Whilst the US economy is growing at a comparatively dynamic pace, the European Union and, in particular, Germany – Austria’s most important export markets – are lagging significantly behind. Global trade is also expected to slow following a strong rise in 2025.
Focus on monetary policy and structural changes
For the first time, the Annual Report also provides a detailed analysis of monetary external economic relations. The focus is on inflation trends, monetary policy strategies and exchange rate dynamics in the major economies.
The monetary policy landscape in 2025 was characterised by falling inflation, moderate economic growth and persistent geo-economic uncertainties. With the energy price shock following the war in Iran, monetary policy once again came into sharper focus at the start of 2026.
For Austria, the real effective exchange rate based on unit labour costs shows a smaller appreciation than the euro area average. This points to a slight improvement in price competitiveness, though this is put into perspective by the strong inflation-driven appreciation in previous years.
Furthermore, the report examines medium-term changes in the global trading system. The focus is on rising trade policy uncertainty, increasing protectionist measures and the structural consequences of geopolitical conflicts for the international division of labour.
These developments are driving a reorganisation of global supply chains in the sense of “friendshoring” and reinforcing the formation of blocs in world trade. For the European Union, this increasingly raises the question of how economic openness, security of supply and strategic resilience can be better reconciled in the future.
Diversification and resilience are gaining in importance
Current developments underscore the importance of an active risk-reduction strategy at European and national level. The focus is on diversifying supply and sales markets, deepening trade relations with rule-based partners, expanding renewable energy, and building more resilient international supply chains.
The recent energy price shocks and the increasing fragmentation of world trade demonstrate how important it is to reduce structural dependencies at an early stage. In addition, the FIW recommends a broad-based industrial strategy to specifically reduce critical dependencies on raw materials, energy and digital technologies, whilst simultaneously strengthening Europe’s long-term competitiveness.
The FIW Research Centre Internatioanl Economics, is offering a grant for outstanding young female researchers in the field of international economics.
The “FIW award” is aimed at qualified female researchers up to the age of 35 who have completed a doctoral thesis in the field of international economics at an Austrian university, or at Austrian citizens who have completed their doctoral thesis at a university abroad. The FIW Award aims to highlight and reward outstanding research by women.
The aim of the FIW Award is to highlight and reward outstanding research by women with the intention to encourage women to pursue a scientific career.
The total amount of the award is € 3,000 and can be divided among several young researchers. The actual distribution of the prize money will depend on the quality and number of submissions.
Theoretical, empirical and economic policy theses on the following topics are eligible for funding:
Foreign trade, direct investment, development economics, European integration, geoeconomics, globalisation, international financial markets, international trade and financial institutions, international macroeconomics, international economic development, international trade, international competition, multinational companies, environmental impact of international economic activities, economic effects of migration, exchange rate regimes, and similar topics.
The following criteria are decisive for the evaluation of submissions:
Please send submissions to: FIW Project Office fiw-pb@fiw.at
Extended Deadline: 15 January 2026
University of Vienna
July 09-10, 2026
Organisers: Pol Antràs (Harvard), Alejandro Cuñat (University of Vienna), Harald Fadinger (University of Vienna)
and Kalina Manova (UCL)
Keynote Speakers: Matilde Bombardini (Berkeley) and Thierry Mayer (Sciences Po)
We invite submission for the 9th edition of WIEN, a two-day meeting that will draw together researchers
interested in international economics, global value chains and economic geography.
The workshop will take place in the University of Vienna’s beautiful Sky Lounge with a view over the city.
To be considered for inclusion on the programme, papers must be submitted in PDF format to Mrs. Mieke Hein
(hein@wiiw.ac.at) by Sunday, March 15, 2026. Authors chosen to present papers at the conference will be notified
in early April.
The organisers are particularly keen on receiving submissions from young scholars, including Ph.D. students and
researchers who have just completed their Ph.Ds. With that in mind, we would appreciate it if you could circulate
this Call for Papers among your junior colleagues, former students and current Ph.D. students. As in past editions,
we will actively seek diversity in the set of selected speakers.
Participants will be provided with accommodation in central Vienna, and airfares for speakers based at academic
institutions will also be reimbursed subject to certain budget guidelines.
The conference is generously supported by the Heinrich Graf Hardegg’sche Stiftung, FIW, University of Vienna, wiiw, and the 1 UKRI under funding agreement with the ERC.
18th FIW-Research Conference International Economics
Vienna, 19th-20th February 2026
Keynote Lecture: Lionel Fontagné (University Paris 1, PSE)
Extended Deadline: 16th November 2025
OUTLINE
The Research Centre International Economics – FIW announces its 18th Research Conference ‘International Economics’ and invites the submission of (full) working papers to be presented at the conference.
The main objective of the conference is to provide a platform for economists working in the field of ‘International Economics’ to present recent research.
Papers from Ph.D. students, young faculty members and young researchers in similar positions are particularly welcome as the conference aims to support and encourage young economists by providing an opportunity to present their work to fellow junior economists as well as experienced senior researchers.
The conference also aims at bringing together researchers and policymakers to provide a forum for discussion on how empirical evidence can more effectively inform actual economic policymaking.
TIME & LOCATION
The 18th FIW Research Conference on ‘International Economics’ will take place on Thursday, 19th February 2026 andFriday, 20th February 2026 at the Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU Vienna), Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020 Vienna, Austria.
PAPER SUBMISSION
We invite the submission of (full) working papers on all topics in the field of International Economics.
Please submit your working papers via https://conference2026.fiw.ac.at
until 16th November 2025.
Selection decisions will be communicated between December 2025 and 15th January 2026.
AWARDS
Two prizes for the best contributions to the Research Conference will be awarded:
the ‘Best Conference Paper Award 2026’ and the ‘Young Economist Award 2026’.
Each award is worth € 1000.
The ‘Young Economist Award 2026’ is intended for Ph.D. students, young faculty members and young researchers in similar positions. To be considered for this award all authors of the paper have to be 34 or younger at the time of submission.
TOPICS COVERED
The broad topic of the conference is ‘International Economics’. This includes, inter alia, International Trade, International Factor Movements, Economic Integration, Effects of international economic activities on climate change, Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations, Economic Growth of Open Economies, Multinational Firms, Global Value Chains, International Macroeconomics and other related fields.
The 18th FIW-Research Conference ‘International Economics’ is organized by FIW with support from the Program Committee and the Austrian Federal Ministries for Women, Science and Research (BMFWF) and Economy, Energy and Tourism (BMWET).
The FIW – Research Centre International Economics (https://www.fiw.ac.at) is a cooperation between the Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), the University of Vienna, the Johannes Kepler University Linz, the University of Innsbruck, IHS, WIFO and wiiw.
FIW is grateful for financial support by the Austrian Federal Ministries for Women, Science and Research (BMFWF) and Economy, Energy and Tourism (BMWET).
Program Committee
Questions may be addressed to fiw-pb@fiw.ac.at or alexander.hudetz@wifo.ac.at.
The conference programme will be published on https://www.fiw.ac.at and https://conference2026.fiw.ac.at
Attendance at the FIW Research Conference is free of charge. Please note that travel expenses will not be reimbursed. The official language of the conference is English.
The Department II/7 “Trade and Competition Policy Analysis and Strategies” of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs, Energy, and Tourism invites proposals for a study on the topic:
Subject: “Trade agreements and export performance of Austrian companies” Deadline for submissions: September 23, 2025
Deadline: 23. September 2025
Project objective While macroeconomic studies consistently demonstrate the positive welfare effects of trade agreements, there is limited understanding of the extent to which different companies benefit and the specific forms these benefits take—particularly concerning industry sectors and company size. In light of recent developments, this project will also examine the impact of trade agreements on industrial policy objectives, supply chain security, and the reliability of supply chains.
Attachement:Terms of Reference
procurement process: The contract will be awarded through a direct procurement process in accordance with § 46 of the Federal Procurement Act 2018.
Submission: The complete proposal should be sent to POST.II7-25@bmwet.gv.at. The proposal, potentially adapted, will become part of the service contract upon conclusion.
Contact: For any questions, please contact POST.II7-25@bmwet.gv.at.
The Department II/7 “Trade and Competition Policy Analysis and Strategies” of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs, Energy, and Tourism invites proposals for a study on the topic:
Topic: „The Impact of the Global Increase in Defense Spending on Austrian Foreign Trade“
Project objective: The new strategic orientation of NATO in defense policy is resulting in, first, a significant increase in government defense spending. Second, overall public expenditures are rising, as the heightened demand for armaments in almost all countries is planned to be financed almost entirely through additional public debt. Third, this will lead to a substantial shift in macroeconomic demand, which is expected to have a noticeable impact on foreign trade in goods. This study aims to quantify the effects of these trends on Austrian foreign trade and to develop economic policy recommendations.
Attachement: Terms of Reference
Deadline für Submissions: September 23, 2025
procurement process: The contract will be awarded through a direct procurement process in accordance with § 46 of the Federal Procurement Act 2018.
Submission: The complete proposal should be sent to POST.II7-25@bmwet.gv.at. The proposal, if adapted, will become part of the service contract upon conclusion.
Contact: If you have any questions, please contact POST.II7-25@bmwet.gv.at
FIW is proud to part of a new seminar series in Vienna. The VIES seminar is dedicated to frontier research in international economics and features presentations by renowned international scholars.
The VIES is a joint initiative of CEU, FIW, Universität Wien, WIFO, wiiw and WU.
Organizers: Gábor Békés (CEU), Alejandro Cuñat (Vienna U), Harald Fadinger (Vienna U), Gabriel Felbermayr (WIFO, WU), Miklós Koren (CEU), Harald Oberhofer (WIFO, WU), Robert Stehrer (WIIW).
The seminar is currently coordinated by Harald Fadinger.
Schedule and Location:
The seminar is held on Tuesdays from 17:45 to 19:15 at irregular intervals, alternating each semester between participating institutions.
From October 2025 to January 2026, it will be hosted by the University of Vienna at the Faculty of Business, Economics and Statistics, Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1, 1090 Vienna.
Registration:
Participants are requested to register in advance with Julia Hnidek (julia.hnidek@univie.ac.at).
All details and the current schedule are available at https://sites.google.com/view/viennainternationaleconomicsse/
We are looking forward to meeting you at the Vienna Internatioanl Economics Seminar.
Venue: University of Vienna
Date: June 26-27, 2025
Organizers: Pol Antràs (Harvard), Alejandro Cuñat (University of Vienna), Harald Fadinger (University of Vienna), and Kalina Manova (UCL)
Keynote Speakers: Lorenzo Caliendo (Yale) and Isabelle Mejean (Sciences Po)
Following upon the first seven editions of WIEN, the University of Vienna will again host a two-day meeting that will draw together researchers interested in international economics, global value chains and economic geography.
The workshop will take place in the University of Vienna’s beautiful historical main building.
To be considered for inclusion on the programme, papers must be submitted in PDF format to Mrs. Jelena Milosevic (milosevic@wiiw.ac.at) by Saturday, March 1st, 2025. Authors chosen to present papers at the conference will be notified in March.
The organisers are particularly keen on receiving submissions from young scholars, including Ph.D. students and researchers who have just completed their Ph.Ds. With that in mind, we would appreciate it if you could circulate this Call for Papers among your junior colleagues, former students and current Ph.D. students. As in past editions, we will actively seek diversity in the set of selected speakers.
Participants will be provided with accommodation in central Vienna, and airfares for speakers will also be reimbursed subject to certain budget guidelines. The conference is generously supported by the Heinrich Graph Hardegg’sche Stiftung, FIW [1], University of Vienna, wiiw, and the ERC/UKRI under Horizon Europe Guarantee.
Vienna, 20th-21st February 2025
Keynote Lecture: Meredith Crowley (U. Cambridge)
Deadline: 15th November 2024
OUTLINE
The Research Centre International Economics – FIW announces its 17th Research Conference ‘International Economics’ and invites the submission of (full) working papers to be presented at the conference.
The main objective of the conference is to provide a platform for economists working in the field of ‘International Economics’ to present recent research.
Papers from Ph.D. students, young faculty members and young researchers in similar positions are particularly welcome as the conference aims to support and encourage young economists by providing an opportunity to present their work to fellow junior economists as well as experienced senior researchers.
The conference also aims at bringing together researchers and policy makers to provide a forum for discussion on how empirical evidence can more effectively inform actual economic policy making.
TIME & LOCATION
The 17th FIW Research Conference on ‘International Economics’ will take place on Thursday, 20th February 2025 andFriday, 21st February 2025 at the Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU Vienna), Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020 Vienna, Austria.
PAPER SUBMISSION
We invite the submission of (full) working papers on all topics in the field of International Economics.
Please submit your working papers via https://conference2025.fiw.ac.at
until 15th November 2024.
Selection decisions will be communicated between December 2024 and beginning of January 2025.
AWARDS
Two prizes for the best contributions to the Research Conference will be awarded – the ‘Best Conference Paper Award 25’ and the ‘Young Economist Award 25’. Each award is worth € 1000.
The ‘Young Economist Award 25’ is intended for Ph.D. students, young faculty members and young researchers in similar positions. To be considered for this award all authors of the paper have to be 34 or younger at the time of submission.
TOPICS COVERED
The broad topic of the conference is ‘International Economics’. This includes, inter alia, International Trade, International Factor Movements, Economic Integration, Effects of international economic activities on Climate Change, Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations, Economic Growth of Open Economies, Multinational Firms, Global Value Chains, International Macroeconomics and other related fields.
ORGANISATION
The 17th FIW-Research Conference ‘International Economics is organized by FIW with support from the Program Committee and the Austrian Federal Ministries for Education Science and Research (BMBFW) and Labour and Economy (BMAW).
ABOUT FIW
The FIW – Research Centre International Economics (https://www.fiw.ac.at) is a cooperation between the Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), the University Vienna, the Johannes Kepler University Linz and the University of Innsbruck, WIFO and wiiw. FIW is grateful for financial support by the Austrian Federal Ministries for Education, Research and Science (BMBFW) and Labour and Economy (BMAW).
Program Committee
Harald Oberhofer (FIW, WU Vienna, WIFO)
Julia Bachtrögler-Unger (WIFO)
Marta Bisztray (KTRK, Budapest)
Jesus Crespo-Cuaresma (WU Vienna)
Alejandro Cunat (University of Vienna)
Peter Egger (ETH Zürich)
Katharina Erhardt (HHU Düsseldorf, DICE)
Harald Fadinger (University of Vienna)
Gabriel Felbermayr (WIFO, WU Vienna)
Lisandra Flach (LMU Munich)
Jochen Güntner (JKU Linz)
Michael Irlacher (JKU Linz)
Inga Heiland (University of Oslo)
Brigitte Hochmuth (University of Vienna)
Mario Holzner (wiiw)
Mario Larch (University of Bayreuth)
Dalia Marin (TU Munich)
Karin Mayr-Dorn (JKU Linz)
Birgit Meyer (WIFO)
Katrin Rabitsch (WU Vienna)
Michael Pfaffermayr (University of Innsbruck)
Robert Stehrer (wiiw)
Julia Spornberger (University of Hohenheim)
Roman Stöllinger (TU Delft)
Gabriele Tondl (WU Vienna)
Joschka Wanner (University of Würzburg)
Yvonne Wolfmayr (WIFO)
Questions may be addressed to fiw-pb@fiw.ac.at or alexander.hudetz@wifo.ac.at.
The conference programme will be published on https://www.fiw.ac.at and https://conference2025.fiw.ac.at
Attendance of the FIW Research Conference is free of charge.
The conference language is English. Travel expenses will not be refunded.