VIES – Seminar with Yuan Zi (Geneva Graduate Insitute)
The FIW Research Centre International Economics and its partners kindly invite you to participate in the upcoming Vienna International Economics Seminar (VIES) on the topic:
A Thirst for Silver: Trade Shock, Taxation, and Local Unrest in Nineteenth-Century China
joint with Ting Chen, Jianan Li & Chong Pang
Speaker: Yuan Zi (Geneva Graduate Insitute)
Abstract:
Under what conditions can globalization become a source of state fragility? We provide the first systematic evidence that rigid trade and taxation systems, together with the collapse in global silver production following the Spanish American wars of independence, fueled rising silver prices and social instability in early nineteenth-century Qing China. Using newly assembled county-level panel data and historical commercial routes, we show that regions farther from Canton—the empire’s sole legal international port—experienced larger increases in silver prices and greater social unrest following the shock. Silver-denominated taxation was central to this relationship: because taxes were largely fixed in silver terms, rising silver prices sharply increased real tax burdens and fueled instability. Quantitatively, the silver shock reduced China’s aggregate welfare by 1.16%, with fiscal rigidity accounting for most of the loss. Opening additional international ports would have mitigated the destabilizing effects of the shock, but only modestly. By contrast, fiscal reform would have been far more effective.
Webpage: https://www.graduateinstitute.ch/faculty/yuan-zi
When: Tuesday, June 16, 17.45-19.15 p.m..
Where: lecture hall 15, 2nd floor
Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1, 1090 Wien
The main entrance at Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 is the easiest way to get to lecture hall 15, 2nd floor.
Registration:
Participants are requested to register in advance with Julia Hnidek (julia.hnidek@univie.ac.at).
The Vienna International Economics Seminar (VIES) is a joint initiative of CEU, FIW Research Centre International Economics, Universität Wien, WIFO, wiiw, and WU Vienna. The VIES seminar is dedicated to frontier research in international economics and features presentations by renowned international scholars.
The seminar is held at irregular intervals on Tuesdays from 17:45 to 19:15, alternating each semester between participating institutions. From October 2025 to January 2026, the seminar will be hosted by the University of Vienna.
Organizers:
Gábor Békés (CEU), Alejandro Cuñat (Vienna U.), Harald Fadinger (Vienna U.), Gabriel Felbermayr (WIFO, WU), Miklós Koren (CEU), Harald Oberhofer (WIFO, WU), Robert Stehrer (wiiw).
The seminar is currently coordinated by Harald Fadinger.
For more information and the detailed seminar schedule, please visit: https://sites.google.com/view/viennainternationaleconomicsse/
