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The Research Centre International Economics FIW is a project of WIFO, wiiw and WSR on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Digital and Economic Affairs. The FIW cooperation with the Vienna University of Economics and Business, the University Vienna, the Johannes Kepler University Linz and the University of Innsbruck is supported by the Federal Ministry of Education, Science and Research.
Focus spring 2013
We present and discuss current research and economic policy related topics in International Economics. This quarter about:
New initiatives in EU trade policy
France wants to exclude cultural sector, Germany can live with American hormone beef.
The collateral damage of the U.S. data affair are likely to be significant. Even the free trade agreement could be threatened.
Japan, Europe and the U.S. want free trade. If the project works out, a huge liberal economic bloc is going to be formed – against China’s power
Interview: The Eurasian economic union seeks a free trade zone with the EU. Trade minister Slepnew rejects a special solution with the Ukraine, though
Car industry skeptical – EU would hope for 420.000 new jobs
Mandate. Template for mutual market access and reduction of trade barriers.
Summit. Contract shall eliminate EU tariffs and Japan’s trade barriers.
The U.S. and Europe want to reduce trade barriers. Obama, Van Rompuy and Barroso announce talks.
The chances for real free trade between Europe and the US rise – Merkel and Obama are serious. Not only industry would profit, also consumers on both sides of the Atlantic.
Discussions should start in June. Commission President Barroso is expecting hard negotiations.
Economic researchers calculate an increase in trade in goods of 79 percent. One fourth of the jobs will arise in Germany.
The EU and the U.S. want to negotiate on a free trade pact. To make that work easier, the group chairman of the Green party wants to exclude the agricultural sector - as differences would be to huge.
The Rediscovery of the exchange rate
Currently, Japan’s monetary policy is a central theme on the global financial markets. Observers fear the outbreak of one of the worst currency wars since the 1930ies.
China’s exchange rate policy under the spell of president Xi Jinping’s US visit
On the G7 meeting of finance ministers, Finance Minister Schäuble reminded of the promise not to manipulate currencies. Also the U.S. exhorted Tokyo. Japan’s Central Bank Chief defenses against the charges.
Finance ministers and Federal Reserve chairmen of the most important industrial countries discussed consequences of loose monetary policy. Nothing has been decided, though.
Japan wants to create inflation forcefully. But: the U.S. and England are years ahead - the European Central Bank already tries to exit from lax monetary policies. Also China sets against Japan’s course..
For exporters a currency relation of one to one to the US Dollar sounds like a dream. Savers can profit, too - if they are willing to take the risk of investing in the Dollar..
China is "fully prepared" for a currency war, according to a top central banking official speaking in Beijing.
Within the last three years the Chinese Renminbi has risen strongly against the Dollar. With so-called Dim-Sum-funds one can participate in this revaluation.
Harmonic result of a G20 summit, which was held under the catchphrase ”currency war”. Japan was not blamed for its politics of inflation, lines were passed, compromises obtained – however, savings fell by the wayside.
Fear of “competitive depreciation” – Minister urges G20 to keep promises
History shows currency disputes can escalate from rhetorical spats into disastrously economic conflict.
With the new Mexican president Pena Nieto a change of course in economic policy is implied. A weak Peso would be more than desirable.
Industrial countries are in disagreement on monetary policy and debt reduction. On Friday and Saturday G20 representatives meet under Russian presidency for the first time.