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AktuellFocus Summer 2018
11/18/2018 : 6:34 am : +0100



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Focus Autumn 2018

We present and discuss current research and economic policy related topics in International Economics. This quarter about:

Brexit: Deal or No-Deal




Documents published as part of the European Commission's approach to transparency on Article 50 negotiations with the United Kingdom:

Draft Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community, as agreed at negotiators' level on 14 November 2018.

Joint report from the negotiators of the European Union and the United Kingdom Government.

undefinedOutline of the political declaration setting out the framework for the future relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, as agreed at negotiators' level on 14 November 2018.

An overview of the most contentious clauses of the Brexit agreement

undefinedThe Guardian

Theresa May has agreed a draft Brexit deal with Brussels. What happens now?


The policy brief discusses the potential trade and welfare effects of Britain's disorderly exit from the EU through a recent study limited to trade in goods. The results show that a hard Brexit would have significantly worese effects on Britain than on the EU.  Still, , a contractless Brexit would also be associated with negative welfare effects forthe remaining 27 EU member states.

undefinedoefge (German)

European diplomats downplay the risks of an unorderly exit Great Britain's from the European Union. But bbehind the scenes the EU has long been preparing for this unfavorable scenario.


Talks on a solution to the Irish border issue have ground to a halt as both sides fail to agree so far - but what have the key players said on the issue and what do they actually want?


Although obstacles remain, there is now cautious optimism that the two sides are close to wrapping up agreement on all aspects of the U.K. divorce treaty apart from a solution to the Northern Ireland border issue, according to EU diplomats briefed on the talks


With increasing frustration over the situation as ‘Brexit Day’ approaches, some political pundits are suggesting that an Irish exit from the EU would benefit Ireland. This column assesses the macroeconomic impact of a range of scenarios and argues that while any version of Brexit, with or without Irexit, worsens the Irish economic situation relative to the status quo, economically speaking the best option for Ireland is to stay within the fold of the EU while hoping for and working towards the best in terms of post-Brexit UK economic integration with Europe.


Stock market returns provide a useful way of measuring investor expectations. The column uses stock return data following the Brexit referendum to show a persistent negative shift in sentiment towards multinationals with at-risk global value chains. In particular, even compared to others in the same industry, firms with a UK or EU focus underperform. This suggests the potential for targeted support policies.


For weeks, the negotiations on the UK's exit from the EU have been virtually on hold. New proposals from London should have brought but now movement in the discussions. Meanwhile, the EU continues to put pressure on it and demand even more speed - by mid-October it wants "maximum progress". But not all are so confident.

undefinedORF (German)

EU citizens will no longer be given priority to live and work in Britain in a radical overhaul of immigration policy after Brexit, Theresa May has said, admitting Britons may in turn have to apply for US-style visas to visit and work in Europe.

undefinedeuractiv (German)


For the upcoming business year Voestalpine is expecting an improvement of its net-profits in the United States due to the recent tax reform.

undefinedOeNachrichten (German)

Enterprises of the automotive industry warn that a hard brexit could have severe consequences.

undefinedSpiegel (German)





The article contains a graphic illustration of the remaining options of the British governement.

undefinedZeit (German)