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Fokus Sommer 2018Focus Summer 2018
11/18/2018 : 6:43 am : +0100

 

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Focus Summer 2018

We present and discuss current research and economic policy related topics in International Economics. This quarter about:

Trade war and its consequences for the world economy


 

 

 

The EU commission plans to allow more beef imports from the United States of America to the European Union. If no deal is reached, Trump threatens with punitive duties.

undefinedSueddeutsche (German)

Tariffs intended to reduce competition from foreign firms can backfire by also raising the costs of imported inputs for domestic firms. This column examines the market responses to the Trump administration’s initial and subsequent announcements of tariffs on imports from China. US firms that are more dependent on exports to and imports from China experienced lower stock and bond returns but higher default risks around the date of the announcement. Firms’ indirect exposure to US-China trade through domestic input-output linkages affects their responses to the announcements.

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Populist politicians argue that protectionism stimulates the domestic economy. This column uses data on temporary trade barriers from antidumping investigations to show that when small open economies have imposed protectionist measures, it has caused inflation to rise and real economic activity to fall. Empirical analysis and model-based exercises show that protectionism is costly even when used temporarily, even for economies stuck in liquidity traps, and regardless of the flexibility of the exchange rate.

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Großbritannien sowie den 27 EU-Ländern drohe durch wachsende Handelskosten ein erheblicher wirtschaftlicher Schaden - derstandard.at/2000068957697/Brexit-Ifo-Chef-draengt-auf-Freihandelspakt-zur-SchadensminimierungGroßbritannien sowie den 27 EU-Ländern drohe durch wachsende Handelskosten ein erheblicher wirtschaftlicher Schaden - derstandard.at/2000068957697/Brexit-Ifo-Chef-draengt-auf-Freihandelspakt-zur-SchadensminimierungGroßbritannien sowie den 27 EU-Ländern drohe durch wachsende Handelskosten ein erheblicher wirtschaftlicher Schaden - derstandard.at/2000068957697/Brexit-Ifo-Chef-draengt-auf-Freihandelspakt-zur-Schadensminimierung

Großbritannien sowie den 27 EU-Ländern drohe durch wachsende Handelskosten ein erheblicher wirtschaftlicher Schaden - derstandard.at/2000068957697/Brexit-Ifo-Chef-draengt-auf-Freihandelspakt-zur-SchadensminimierungGroßbritannien sowie den 27 EU-Ländern drohe durch wachsende Handelskosten ein erheblicher wirtschaftlicher Schaden - derstandard.at/2000068957697/Brexit-Ifo-Chef-draengt-auf-Freihandelspakt-zur-SchadensminimierungGroßbritannien sowie den 27 EU-Ländern drohe durch wachsende Handelskosten ein erheblicher wirtschaftlicher Schaden - derstandard.at/2000068957697/Brexit-Ifo-Chef-draengt-auf-Freihandelspakt-zur-Schadensminimierung

The lingering dispute could cause serious damage to the global economy. In Chinese state media, cautious threats of a consumer boycott of US products have been launched.

undefinedDie Presse (German)

 

For the time being, the EU and the US are moving from the trade war fronts back to the negotiating table - for a "mini-TTIP"?

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The USA is on track to override the rules governing the world economy to date and start a trade war. The USA is also effectively withdrawing its support from the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Is this the end of the WTO? This question is discussed in ifo Schnelldienst 11/2018 by Martin Braml and Gabriel Felbermayr, ifo Institute, Wolfgang Weiß, German University of Administrative Sciences in Speyer, Fritz Breuss, WU Vienna, Christoph Scherrer, University of Kassel, Christoph Herrmann and Caroline Glöckle, University of Passau, Tim Krieger and Laura Renner, University of Freiburg, as well as Bernd Lange, European Parliamen

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The Bank for International Settlments warns that escalating trade wars could threaten global economic growth.

DerStandard (German)

More uncertainty depresses the willingness of German companies to invest. Above all, the trade conflict with the USA is at fault - but on the other hand, it brings China and the EU closer together

 

Deutsche Welle (German)

After the European Union has issued punitive tariffs on various US-products, US-President Donald Trump has warned the EU that he might issue punitive tariffs on car-imports.

 

undefinedDeutsche Welle (German)

While the impact of the growing trade spat on the US and China economies is expected to be small, analysts are concerned about its escalation.

undefinedBBC

The article provides an introduction to the most important topics and terms regarding the current developments in international trade policy.

 

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China is the stated adversary in Donald Trump’s incipient trade war. But 30% of the value of the goods China exports to America is added elsewhere. If the row escalates, countries entwined in Chinese supply chains will suffer.

undefinedEconomist

The Mercedes-Benz maker Daimler has become the first major company to issue a profit warning after being hit by the escalating trade war between the US and China.

undefinedThe Guardian

What does the future hold for the eurozone?


 

 

 

Diplomats of numerous eurozone member states voiced concerns over the German-French reform plans. Especially the plans for an eurozone budget earned criticial reviews.

undefinedTrend (German)

The French president obtained Tuesday from Germany something that can be called a plan for “eurozone reform,” luring the German chancellor just outside of her traditional comfort zone. And it’s the first time in the monetary union’s 20-year history that an agreement on reform has been struck without the pressure and urgency of a major existential crisis

undefinedPolitico

Emmanuel Macron convinces Angela Merkel to sign up for a euro budget. But banking reform will be halting.

 

undefinedReuters