{"id":6450,"date":"2024-10-24T17:14:38","date_gmt":"2024-10-24T15:14:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fiw.ac.at\/?p=6450"},"modified":"2024-10-25T13:03:51","modified_gmt":"2024-10-25T11:03:51","slug":"moegliche-auswirkungen-der-von-d-trump-angekuendigten-us-zollerhoehungen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fiw.ac.at\/en\/2024\/10\/24\/moegliche-auswirkungen-der-von-d-trump-angekuendigten-us-zollerhoehungen\/","title":{"rendered":"Possible effects of the US tariff increases proposed by Donald Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The US presidential candidate has announced massive tariff increases on US imports in general and against Chinese imports in particular in the event of his re-election. Such measures would further destabilise the global trading system and would also have a direct negative impact on incomes in export markets such as the EU and China. However, the consequences would be even greater for the US itself, as our calculations using a multi-sectoral equilibrium model show.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Introduction<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As unpredictable as the outcome of the US presidential election on 5 November<\/a> is, the possible consequences for international economic policy and the global trading system are just as uncertain. However, the latter depend not only on whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins, but also on the but also on the post-election composition of the US Congress and the ideologies of its members. Harris and Trump pursue some of the same goals, such as protecting domestic industry, securing jobs, relocating lost industries back to the US, maintaining the country’s technological leadership and reducing US dependence on international supply chains. Nevertheless, their approaches differ considerably in terms of the radical nature of the planned measures, and the speed and method of their implementation. One major substantive difference concerns climate and environmental policy, where only Harris can be expected to take a constructive approach (see Stehrer, 2024<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposed tariff increases<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of Trump’s most important threats is the announced tariff increases to 10% for all US imports and possibly to 60% (or more) for imports from China; Trump has floated even higher tariffs at his campaign rallies. To assess the impact of such rises, it is first necessary to examine the current tariff rates (see Figure 1). On average, the EU imposes tariffs of 5.2% on the US and China; the US imposes tariffs of 3.5% on the EU and 3.6% on China. China imposes higher average tariffs of 7.5% on the EU and 7.6% on the US. The announced increase in US import tariffs to 10% under Trump would therefore mean a near-threefold increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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